Caribbean Disturbance Weaker, South Florida Risk Reduced, Gulf Formation Still Possible

The tropical disturbance in the southern Bahamas remains disorganized and is expected to remain so for at least the next 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center has reduced formation prospects to a 20% likelihood of a named storm through Sunday morning when the disturbance will be located near the Florida Straights. Now through the weekend, the largest risk is heavy rainfall across Cuba, Hispaniola and South Florida.

Beyond 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center indicates a 60% chance of named storm formation. Any organization is most likely to occur in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the system does organize, conditions are present for intensification. Longer term, models indicate that a potential US landfall could range from the west coast of Florida through the central Gulf Coast, with very large model uncertainties in ultimate intensity.

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